A presidential election model that incorrectly predicted just one election outcome since 1980 shows President Trump winning reelection in 2020.
Moody’s Analytics released the results of its 2020 prediction model on Tuesday showing Trump winning with 332 electoral votes, an increase over his 2016 win of 306, if voter turnout remains relatively close to the historical average.
The Moody’s Analytics model takes into account political dynamics but weighs heavily on economic factors. If the economy remains strong and voter turnout meets the historical average or is low, the model shows Trump winning handily. In the event that voter turnout hits its historical high, the Democratic candidate is expected to win a close race with 279 electoral votes, just over the 270 vote threshold.
The model accurately predicted every presidential election since 1980 except for the most recent one in 2016. Afterward, the authors retooled the single model and broke it into three that, averaged together, would have accurately predicted every election. The model is broken up into “the pocketbook model,” “the stock market model,” and “the unemployment model.”
Workers’ World Today is a free publication that empowers all workers, regardless of social or political affiliations. Distributed throughout New York City, our paper has a mission to educate workers and provide them with relevant information pertinent to the workforce such as workers’ compensation, discrimination on the job, workers’ rights, and more.